WEATHER FORECASTING

Introduction:
The advance information regarding forthcoming weather is called weather forecast.
Weather forecasting is a most complicated technique. To solve the complex equations related to weather forecasting the use is made of very fast Super computers. Now a days our country has a Super Computer at New Delhi for this purpose.
Weather forecasting requires a number of surface and upper air observations for visual representation of all the meteorological observations on the weather map.
Weather forecasting is most useful to (1) Farmers, (2) Fishermen, (3) Aviation (Civil & IAF), (4) Ships (Commercial & Navy), (5) Railway and Road transports, (6) Electricity & Communication Department.
Observational Network
In India, there exists one Head Quarter, One Centre, One Central Weather centre, Five Regional Meteorological Centres (RMC), Fourteen State Meteorological Centres (SMC) and number of Sub Meteorological Observatories. All these stations are also connected with a good communication system to each other and to SMC, RMC and to HQ, New Delhi. These observatories are also classified according to various types of meteorological observations.
Types of weather forecast
(1) Short Range Forecast (2) Medium Range Forecast
(3) Long Range Forecast (4) Local Forecast
Short Range Forecast
Short-range forecasts are usually prepared by synoptic or numerical method. These are issued for next 24 hours and extend up to next 72 hours. Short-range forecasts are issued for pressure, pressure tendency, wind, temperature, and upper wind data after preparing weather maps. These weather maps are the indicators of bad weather (such as cyclonic storm, hail storm, dust storm, western disturbance, etc.) and fair weather (clear sky). Short-range forecasts also cover the information like showers, fog, thunderstorm, lighting, cold wave, hot wave, gale warning and Sunny weather period with space and time.
Examples of specific language used in forecasting rainfall is,
(1) Heavy to very heavy rain is likely to occur over South Gujarat region during next 24 hours.
(2) Wide spread rain over South Gujarat region.
(3) Fairly wide spread rain over Saurashtra.
(4) Scattered rain over North Gujarat region.
(5) Isolated rain over Kutch.


Medium Range Forecasting:
Medium Range Forecasts are generally prepared by synoptic and sometimes by numerical methods. These forecasts are valid for the period of next four days. The weather information of forth coming weather changes is given at least three days in advance. The forecast period can be extended up to about a week ahead. This forecast is much more useful to agriculture, because agriculture is an industry where the work depends very much on the weather. At present, farmers make great use of daily weather forecasts for planning their work.
Daily forecasts of the weather during the coming week are useful to farmers to make the efficient and economic use of their labour, equipment and management of water for irrigation.

Long Range Forecasting:
Long term forecasting involves prediction of weather conditions over the entire crop growth period or season. Statistical methods are generally used for this type of forecasting. These forecasts are used for planning purposes only.


Iridium space weather forecasting

Radar

Radiosonde RCPC

Satellite communications